Weekly Market Updates: WW20
Posted by lionel319 @ Sat 17 May, 08, 10:53AM under Weekly Market Updates
This blog has been viewed by 509 visitor(s)




UP up and away ........
No no .... I'm not talking about the market.
It that darn @$%#@#$%@#$% oil.






The reports on auto sales came down.
Fundamentally, the demand for oil should be theoretically reduced.
But ...... this thing is still going up.
when is this thing gonna stop? God knows.














Gold, as expected, rallied to 900.
That little close above the trend line, is just a test. It is not YET considered a breakout. We will see how it works out the next few days. And if it really doesn't continue moving up from 900 with strong signs, then 950 will be the next immediate resistance. Else, the downtrend will continue.











US Dollar has been trading in the $72-$74 trading range for the past 3 weeks.
All traders seems to be sitting at the side line while waiting for more confirmation on the direction of this currency.

As a side point, an Iron Condor would be very cool.
Write a 74/75 call Credit Spread + 72/71 put Credit Spread, and so long as the USD stays within $72-$74 till expiration, you get to keep all the credits received. :)















Noticed something different?

Well, I've decided to use the SPY instead of the DJIA index as my market gauge. Actually both charts look the same, but since SPY is a much broader market, I've decided to use it. One of the reason for using this is that I can use the $VIX (volatility index) to add into my study on the market's sentiment, as the $VIX measures the volatility of the Market, or to be more precise, the SPY in actual.

The YELLOW up sloping trend line has been intact since March.
The PINK horizontal trend line has just been broken in early May, and has recently being tested for it's support last week. (see the 2nd pink circle)

The past 5 days has been up days, making higher highs and higher lows.
Everyone is sooooo eager to get into the market in order not to miss out any piece of their share. Green is pilling everywhere.

Last Friday formed a hanging man right at the 200MA resistance area (see blue circle). With Oil and Gold trading higher, and the stochastic showing signs of overbought, I have strong reasons to believe that the market is going to stage a pullback next week. There's one more reason that supports my believe ...... and it is ........







The Volatility index.



It is already extending itself beyond 10% of the 10MA. When that happens, there's a high possibility that the market will snap back, which in this case, a pullback is highly possible on the SPY.





Action plan for next week?
Stay on the side line. Be patient. I believe the market is going to pullback somehow. Once that does happen, then it will be a good chance to hunt for counters which produces nice signals for entry and nice setups. Entries will be taken once the entry signals are generated.

Here are some stocks that are in my watchlist that I'm going to pay attention for possible entry:- LCM, LG, GCI, PBR, SINT, SJT, SIM, EMC, RCH, PWAV, DELL.









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