Just watched Alice In Wonderland (link) last night.

Quite a nice and relaxing movie, I would say. Do watch it if you have the time. :)

 

Back to business.

 

 

SPY made a new high for the year yesterday.

In fact, SPY has been on 20 up days out of the past 25 days.

Which actually has brought the market to quite an extreme overbought region (not shown here).

The previous high made in early January, around $115.25 would be seen as it's immediate support.

If a retest to that level holds, and SPY bounce back, then there won't be any overhead resistance, and it looks like it's gonna be a very bright future for us for the next coming few weeks.

But if $115 level breaks, then the next support to look for would be at the $113 level, and things might get ping-pong around between the $113-$115 level.

 

 

 A broader view on the GOLD index.

Seems like the larger trend line (the blue trend line startsince Oct) has turned from support to resistance.

Looks to me like an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern (link) has emerged.

The green dotted dash line is the neck line of the inverted head and shoulder.

Seems like, Gold will be range bounded in the next few trading sessions, seeing price toggling between the neck line($1140) and its major support($1075).

 

 

 

Oil is seeing the same fate as in the SPY.

It's sitting right at it's previous top right now, hovering around the $82.50 level.

Do you see a Triple Top pattern (link)? Looks like one to me though.

If it comes back down, the $70 level will be the MAJOR support for oil.

 

 

 

Let's take a look at USD.

A few weeks ago, we talked about the $4 targetted price move from the Flag or Pennant pattern (link).

And ever since USD reached its targeted move around $80, it has been showing signs of range bounding between $79.50 and $81.50.

These levels has had a history sign of erratic indecisive price movement in Jun last year too.

Sooner or later, it has to break away from this range bound.

All we need to do is to monitor which direction is the breakout move, and trade with it. 

 

 

 

 

Talking about Flag and Pennants, this chart (ALTR) does seems like it's showing the same thing too.

Altera shows that it has found a base at around $21, ran straight up to $25.

And has been forming a tight, small flag (price congestion) at around $25.

If it breaks above this flag, and move higher, a price target of $29 looks pretty possible to me.

Hmmmm ................. This thing looks pretty tasty to me.

 

Fellow Alterians, what do you think? 

 

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Ya.

Everyone sees it.

The SPY has broken up a very important resistance price level (111-112).

 

Noticed that,  every time price reaches the critical price level at $111-$112 junction, a lot of doji formed over that area.

Remember the meaning of Doji? 

It means indecision, which quite make sense, because everyone isn't pretty sure where will be the next direction be.

Will it bounce off from the resistance? Or break out straight away?

In this case (last week), it broke out from the 1st day.

Followed by a 3 days of indecision.

But the final blow came on Friday(yesterday), which truly sees that the bulls have gain control.

We will be seeing some sunlight(bullishness) in the following sessions. :)

 

 

 

Crude oil inching above slowly.

It looks like a bull flag to me at the congestion around 78-80.

If it manages to break above the overhead resistance at 84, a price target at $88 will be the level that we will be pay attention to.

 

 

 

 

Gold has broken out from it's downtrend resistance.

It retested it's support within a week, and rebounded back up successfully.

Seems like a new uptrend is on it's way.

 

 

 

 

The Dollar (USD) seems to be continuingon it's way up.

but seems like it has been facing with touch resistance at around the $81.30 price level.

The 1st one came from a long black candle, where price gapped up at $81.30, and then immediately fall back downwards.

A week after that, a few long up tail candles follow suit. Price touched the $81.30 level, and immediately shy from there.

$81.30 will be the important level for us to keep and eye on whether USD will be able to continue making progress upwards.

 

 

 

 

 

ALTR is facing a HUGE challenge right now.

$25 has been it's ULTIMATE challenge ever since the stock goes down below that level.

Since early last year, ALTR has been making breat progress, forming 2 ascending wedge.

Am I seeing correctly? We seems to already have a small sorta breakout from the ascending wedge.

Seem like the momentum is strong here.

Hopefully with the help from the bullishness of the overall market, this will help ALTR to get thru this long curse that hasn't been broken.

 

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SPY seems to be at a very critical price junction.

 

$111 - $112 area seems to be the resistance.

This coincides with the current 50MA.

I'll wait for a better indicator as to which direction the market will go before I make any decision.

 

 

 

Remember the Crude Oil Chart,

 

about the Busted pattern I discussed 2 weeks ago?

Well, see how it turned out 2 weeks later :)

 

 

 

Gold seems to be in the process of forming a descending wedge pattern.

Until it breaks above the upper trend line of the wedge,  I would assume that this gradual downwards move will remain.

 

 

 

USD has been gaining a lot of strength.

A major breakout above it's resistance in early December last year.

It re tested the previous high in mid January, successfully defended the support, and never looked back.

How long will the USD keep going up?

Let's take a look at the British Pound.

 

 

British Pound had a MAJOR breakdown recently.

$158 area looks to me like a very important support, and it didn't hold.

I really think this breakdown has caused serious technical damage.

So long as the British pound continues to slide, I believe that the USD will continue to gain it's strength in its upwards move.

 

 

 

 

USD is not the only one that is gaining strength.

ALTR !!!

A breakout from ascending triangle in early August last year.

A targetted $5 move was met in early January 2010.

It's normal for price to retreat when the targetted price is met. Normally, everyone sees that, and people will start selling. That's normal.

What's interesting is that, after the pullback of selling, the strength  continues, and it breaks out from the $23 resistance.

There really seems to be a lot of buyers out there that eager to get into ALTR.

Honestly, I'm really ............ EXCITED !!! :P

 

 

 

 

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For the first time, since the time i ever remembered, the market gave out a triggered signal on going SHORT.

SPY 22MA has crossed below 50MA.

And is currently overbought.

This is the signal for me to start picking up some SHORT trades.

$108 - $110 seems to be a very sensitive price area, where we will see a lot of bulls and bears fighting against each other.

This might cause a lot of high wave candles (long tails) which makes swing trading pretty difficult, because stops will be easily shaken out.

Anyway, I won't be able to initiate any open trades this time around. Will be taking a week of for the Chinese New Year.

(you can check out some possible short candidates from the free candle scan website)

 

 

 

 

$GOLD is still currently on it's A-B-C wave correction.

But it does seem like the C wave correction is done .... yet.

Price is now right below the resistance trend line, and has already gotten to the Overbought region.

I don't think it's very likely that GOLD is able to break thru this resistance this time.

The Friday's hanging man candle looks like a good shorting opportunity for me though.

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil ($WTIC) defended it's support trend line, and is currently above it's support again.

Looks like a busted pattern to me.

Normally when a fake breakout happens, price will go into the other direction in a fast mode. 

This is normally due to the traders which got their stops shaken out, and a rush in short covering that causes the immense shoot up in price.

 

 

 

 $USD met it's bull flag's price target.

 

The Flagpole (the blue rectangle), which is the initial run-up, had a price range of $4.

This will be the targetted price for the next run-up after the breakout of the brief consolidation area(flag), which is in cyan color.

The breakout from the flag started at $76.5, and it's right now at $80.5, which is the measured target price area.

Price normally meet with some resistance at targetted area, because everyone sees it, everyone knows it, and everyone sets it as their selling point, and thus, it makes sense that price will some what stall at that area.

Whether or not price will continue to move up, or start to fall, depends on how strong the momentum of the next wave of traders.

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The day-of-the-tails seems like  a good title for this post, as I see a lot of tails on most of the index.

- I see tail in all the 3 major index (SPY, QQQQ, Dow)
- Tail in Crude Oil
- Tail in Gold
- Tail in Volatility Index (VIX)

And it's not the ordinary tail, it's the type which is extremely long.

 

 

The market has been in a near term bearish trend.

The 22MA is threatening to crossing below the 50MA soon.

When that happens, and stock price pull back to it's 22MA, that will be a nice timing to test the market with some new shorting position.

 

 

USD met it's price target last week.

The estimated move from Dec low to Dec high, which was about (78-74.5) 3.5 points, was what exactly the market technicians have been looking at, which was the breakout from the bull flag from 76.5 to 80.

The question now is, will it continue to move higher?

 

 

GOLD also looks like it has done its A-B-C pullback.

Is this pullback done?

Well, it might give a bounce right away, seeing that the long tail hammer pattern it's forming right at the 50% Fibonnaci.

Or it might further drop to the 1025 level, which seems to me to be a more major support, before spring upwards again.

 

 

 

Crude oil breaks below it's major support trend line.

Looks to me like it's gonna be pretty damaging to the technical site if this break down is confirmed.

We'll need to see how things turn out further next week for the break down confirmation.

 

 

 

 

 

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