Posted by lionel319 @ Wed 04 Jun, 08, 11:03AM under My Trades
After much thoughts, I've decided to brunch out my Trading Logs from my social blog.
I will still keep my other stuff here, updating this blog often when time permits, I will still post investing related stuff here as well, just that I won't post any personal trades/trading ideas here.
The reason for the new blog is to to keep my Trading Log clean and easily readable so that i can look back and review on my past trades in an easier manner.
I hope my past trading log over here serves everyone well, and wish you guys a happy and prosperous journey in your trading life :)
Posted by lionel319 @ Fri 23 May, 08, 10:39PM under My Trades
Reason Of Entry
Hammer on Support.
Trade Details
21 May, 2008 - LONG CBD @ $48.63 x 39 23 May, 2008 - Stopped @ $46.07 P/L : -2%
Comment
The Market (SPY) wasn't in a oversold region. Maybe i shouldn't have jumped in, and should have waited for the market to be in an Oversold state before i get in the market.
Latest status Current Account Balance: $4363 Risk Allowed (2%): $90 ======================= Win/Lose = 0/190.84 Win Probability = 0/2 =======================
Posted by lionel319 @ Fri 23 May, 08, 09:25PM under My Trades
Here's where I keep all my trading statistics . This page mainly serves as my personal:-
1. gauge to measure how well am I in achieving my goals 2. To look back at my past trades on all the mistakes I've made and 3. avoid repeating the mistakes again in the future.
Goal
1. I need to maintain a 0.50 Win Probability (for every lose, I must get a win) 2. I need to achieve a 1.5 Win/Lose Ratio (in order to achieve that, for every 1 point of risk taken, I need to make back a 1.5 point reward. In other words, only enter a trade with at least a Risk/Reward of 1.5) 3. Never risk more than 2% of total portfolio on any one trade.
Trading Style A little bit about my trading style. I'm a swing trader. Basically, my goal here is to capture profits from swings. - Long when small pullbacks occur on a strong uptrend stock. - Short when small rallies occur on a strong downtrend stock.
Rules and Guidelines My rules are pretty simple. Rules are stuff that no matter what happens, you SHOULD NOT break it. Guidelines are there just to be reminder.
Rules 1. Never LONG on a counter when it's 30MA is not pointing up. (same goes for SHORT) 2. Only LONG when counter is oversold / SHORT when overbought. (i look at Stochastic12.3.3) 3. Never trade a stock which will be announcing it's earnings within the next 10-trading-days. (It's more like a gambling when u trade during this period without the proper knowledge) 4. All entry needs to go thru an 45min HOLD TIME rule. ( whichever fails that 45min HOLD TIME rule will be disqualified, no matter how good the reward is. ) 5. Never trade on counters which are GAPPY and have DRASTIC moves,
Guidelines 1. Focus on LONGS When market is uptrend, and SHORTS when market is downtrend. 2. Go LONG for stocks which is trading above it's 200MA, and SHORTS for stocks which are trading below it's 200MA.
Posted by lionel319 @ Thu 22 May, 08, 02:25PM under My Trades
Here's the Weekly Chart
Here's the Daily Technical Chart.
3 months chart Noticed how the doji sat exactly at the resistance-turned-support line? That was what I was betting on,
Trade Details
21 May, 2008 - LONG CBD @ $45.70 x 100 21 May, 2008 - Stopped @ $45.10 P/L : - 2%
Comment:-
The Market (SPY) wasn't in a oversold region. Maybe i shouldn't have jumped in, and should have waited for the market to be in an Oversold state before i get in the market.
With all the random 10 probabilities, if I am lucky, I might survive till next year, the most.
If I were to trade the way i am trading right now, there's no doubt that I'm doomed.
With the current probability that I'm having (0.52, which means out of 100 trades, i win 52 times), even with a win/lost ratio of 1(meaning everytime i win , I win $100, everytime i lose, i also lose $100), I ain't gonna achieve nothing still ......
Now ..... This looks better. (win/lose = 1.5)
So ..... Let's mark down the stuff that I really need to improve in order to get a positive return.
1. I need to maintain a 0.50 Win Probability (for every lose, I must get a win) 2. I need to achieve a 1.5 Win/Lose Ratio (in order to achieve that, for every 1 point of risk taken, I need to make back a 1.5 point reward. In other words, only enter a trade with at least a Risk/Reward of 1.5) 3. Never risk more than 2% of total portfolio on any one trade.
That will be the ultimate goal for me for the coming 6 months. No waramashit 100% yearly returns. No whatsoever bullshit of earning $3M in 3 years.
Just Focus on NOT LOSING MONEY, and FOCUS on - 0.50 Win Probability - 1.5 Risk/Reward.
Posted by lionel319 @ Wed 14 May, 08, 10:10AM under My Trades
(60min chart)
12 May, 2008 - BTO Jun47.5c @ $2.00 13 May, 2008 - STC Jun47.5c @ $1.10
P/L : - 45%
Comment:- The chart is in a nice uptrend. Everything looks nice. I followed and abide to all the rules. I was so confident when i entered the stock seeing the price break thru the ascending triangle formed in the 60min chart.
Just didn't work out this time. OUCH !!!! Very very painful.
Posted by lionel319 @ Sat 10 May, 08, 10:29AM under My Trades
08 May, 2008 - LONG @ $123.07 09 May, 2008 - Sell @ $118.32
P/L : -5.44%
Comment:- Saw the High Volume day, with the small range candle? I was pretty sure that the stock was being accumulated. That was the confidence i have in this trade.
Something to think about. Was my stop too tight? Hmmmm ........
Posted by lionel319 @ Thu 08 May, 08, 02:58PM under My Trades
07 May, 2008 - BTO May15c @ $0.70 07 May, 2008 - STC May15c @ $0.50
P/L : -28%
Comment:- Read about the T30 trading pattern from www.swing-trade-stocks.com . Wanted to give it a tried, but didn't turned up to expectation.
No worries. Better luck next time.
One problem though, I shouldn't even had gotten into the trade. 2 mistakes here:- - Stock is trading below SMA200 (which we should be long on that stock) - Didn't even adhere to the 45min hold time entry rule. Dai Sei.
